Title


"An exact recursive relation and a large deviation function for frequency of earthquakes in a 1D forest-fire model"

Tetsuya Mitsudo (The University of Tokyo)


Abstract


A size-frequency distribution of earthquakes varies in time and space. Investigation on variation in time and space can lead to precise prediction of earthquakes. In this respect, we introduced 1D forest-fire models with different distributions of fracture initiation point (T.M and N.Kato,arXiv/1209.0879). The distribution of fracture initiation point represents the inhomogeneity of faults. In this presentation, I derive a recursive relation with respect to system size of the transition matrix of the model with single initiation point at an edge. Using the recursive relation and numerical analysis, the large deviation functions for frequency of earthquakes of large system size are calculated. (Acknowledgement) This study is supported by the Aihara Project, the FIRST program from the JSPS, initiated by the CSTP.